Trading Western Digital and Micron Stock - Sold WDC on financials, sold MU 5% trading system

Losing Money

Copyright 2005 by Morris Rosenthal

All Rights Reserved

Monday, March 7th, 2005

I did a little research on Western Digital today after buying it last Friday (makes a lot of sense:-) and decided to sell out at break even. Missed by a penny, so the round trip on 200 shares cost the portfolio $12. Around the same time, shares of MU got back within the 5% envelope I was planning on sticking to this month, so I sold it as well, at $10.90, for a $320 round-trip loss, and the worst trade I've made yet. I actually hope to buy MU back before they report, maybe as early as tomorrow, but I'm trying to enforce a trading discipline. I remain impressed by Micron's high level of institutional investment, and I'm still surprised they could slip over 5% on general bad news, as opposed to something company specific, particularly at a time the market was rising. Live and learn

Read a nice article in the WSJ this morning about the new competition for Intel and AMD in the Flash market, based on new NAND technology from Samsung and Toshiba. At least they aren't beating on poor Micron, which I have to decide on selling or holding today. My instinct tells me to double down, but I'm trying to stick with a 5% band trading system, and I already let it slip. The tough part is the NASDAQ was heading up as Micron tanked, and they did so near record volume for the year, which is probably a bad sign. Another bad sign for AMD, pointed out by Bill Alpert in Barron's Online, is that AMD's inventory is running 82% normal levels, as measured in days. The article doesn't specify if this is all inventory or just Flash products, but I'm getting nervous.

The loss on MU exactly matches how far I am below break-eve, and the indexes ran away this week. Of the four sectors I'm keeping a close eye on, it's the Israeli stocks that have had the best run since I started this three weeks ago. Those five stocks are up a collective 8% over the period, a basket of them would stand at $27,092 today, compared to the our leading index, the S&P, at $25,326.

Starting Portfolio Cash on 2/14/2005 was $25,000
Symbol/Index # Shares or Cash Purchase Price Day High Day Low Today's Change Closing Price Closing Value
AMD 200 $17.13 $17.66 $17.26 +0.04 $17.47 $3,494
Portfolio1 $21,186 N/A $24,680
Dow Jones (DIA) 230.251 $108.45 $109.61 $108.65 -0.21 $108.25 $25,203
S&P 500 (SPY) 206.254 $121.21 $122.83 $121.80 +0.06 $122.68 $25,326
Nasdaq (QQQQ) 658.241 $37.98 $37.75 $37.40 +0.54 $37.52 $25,053

1Portfolio balance is after all trading costs in SEP brokerage account with BrownCo

Losing Money | Israeli Stocks | Hardware Stocks | Software Stocks